A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. They composes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
